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Apple Car won’t come until 2025 at the very earliest, says Kuo

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7 min read
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  • Last week's reports of an Apple Car coming in 2024 are “too bullish,” says Ming-Chi Kuo (reliability: 80.95%).
  • In his report, he stated that realistically, the earliest we would likely see an Apple Car would be 2025.
  • He further noted that the vehicle may come as late as 2028.
  • Kuo noted launch timing, uncertainty about the supplier and vehicle specs, and uncertainty around Apple’s competitiveness in the EV and self-driving car market as the main reasons for his remarks.
  • “Kuo also believes that Apple Car specs are still evolving since the very earliest launch would be 2025 – or possibly much later and that – and final specs won’t be set until 2023 - 2025.” - 9to5Mac



As we reported last week, a recent report from Reuters brought some renewed clarity about the fate of Apple’s most secretive project yet - Project Titan. As far back as 2014 and 2017, reports started circulating about the potential for Apple to launch a vehicle to rival Tesla. Things went rather quiet for a while, but now it seems the rumors are back in full swing.

According to new statements from Ming-Chi Kuo (reliability: 80.5%), last week's reports of an Apple Car coming in 2024 are “too bullish.” In his report, he stated that realistically, the earliest we would likely see an Apple Car would be 2025 - further noting that the vehicle may come as late as 2028, depending on multiple factors. Kuo noted launch timing, uncertainty about the supplier and vehicle specs, and uncertainty around Apple’s competitiveness in the EV and self-driving car market as the main reasons for his remarks. From 9to5Mac:

The latest survey done by Kuo indicates that even if development gets going this year and everything “goes well” a launch could happen between 2025-2027. However, based on Apple’s standards, the fast-moving changes in the EV and self-driving car industry, Kuo “would not be surprised” if Apple Car doesn’t arrive until “2028 or later.”

Kuo also believes that Apple Car specs are still evolving since the very earliest launch would be 2025 – or possibly much later and that – and final specs won’t be set until 2023-2025.

Previous statements from Kuo have predicted that the Apple Car may launch as soon as 2023 - 2025, but his latest research shows that it may be pushed back. He bases his 2025 to 2028 timeline on two factors. The first one, which earlier rumors seem to miss out on, is the lack of any specification or actual suppliers for this rumored Apple Car. The second is that Apple rarely launches something big, especially one as expensive as a car, without having some competitive market advantage.

Due to changes in the EV/self-driving market and Apple's high quality standards, we would not be surprised if Apple Car's launch schedule is postponed to 2028 or later - Ming-Chi Kuo

TF Securities feels "the key success factor for Apple Car is not hardware, but big data/AI," an area that Apple has "not demonstrated significant" competitive advantages for in its existing products.

We predicted in a previous report that Apple will launch Apple Car in 2023–2025 […] However, our latest survey indicates that the current development schedule of Apple Car is not clear, and if development starts this year and everything goes well, it will be launched in 2025–2027 at the earliest. Due to changes in the EV/self-driving market and Apple's high-quality standards, we would not be surprised if Apple Car's launch schedule is postponed to 2028 or later. - Ming-Chi Kuo




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