iPhone 16 Preorders Fail to Match iPhone 15 Demand, Analysts Estimate 37 Million Units Sold
- iPhone 16’s preorder numbers aren’t quite living up to the hype—what went wrong?
- Apple’s Pro models didn’t sell out like they used to... and analysts have some thoughts.
- China’s competition and delayed AI features are shaking up the iPhone market.
- Curious about what the holiday season holds for iPhone 16? Keep reading.
Apple’s latest iPhone 16 series seems to be falling short of the hype, according to insider estimates. Preorder numbers, while significant, are reportedly lower than last year’s iPhone 15 lineup.
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests Apple sold about 37 million units over the first weekend—a 12.7% decline from the iPhone 15's launch.
Preorder Frenzy: Some Models Sell Out Fast
On Friday, within just 35 minutes, the iPhone 16 Pro Max was sold out. Not long after, the iPhone 16 Pro followed, with delivery estimates pushing into October. The iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus models lasted a little longer, though some versions of the Plus also ran out by the weekend.
However, despite this initial rush, sales numbers suggest Apple is facing a tougher battle compared to last year.
Photo via MacRumors // A close-up of the iPhone 16 Pro Max, one of this year’s most anticipated devices.
Kuo's Breakdown of iPhone 16 Sales:
- iPhone 16: Slight increase, with a 10% rise over last year’s model.
- iPhone 16 Plus: Up 48% from the iPhone 15 Plus, selling 2.6 million units.
- iPhone 16 Pro: 9.8 million units sold, down 27% from last year.
- iPhone 16 Pro Max: Sold 17.1 million units, a 16% drop compared to the iPhone 15 Pro Max.
The larger Plus model seems to be this year’s surprising winner, while the Pro models, which typically drive sales, struggled. Analysts say this is because of the cost-of-living crisis unfolding around the world, with a not-insignificant number of users opting for Apple's cheaper iPhone models this year.
Lower Sales Despite Better Supply
Photo via CNET // Apple's AI-powered iPhone 16 series is facing slower demand ahead of the delayed feature rollout.
The lower preorder numbers come even though Apple had 106% more iPhone 16 Pro Max models ready at launch. Improvements in the manufacturing of the tetraprism camera component allowed for increased production, a feature previously exclusive to the iPhone 15 Pro Max.
Despite having more units available, the Pro Max and Pro models saw reduced demand. Kuo attributes this drop to several factors, including the delayed rollout of Apple Intelligence features, which aren’t expected until October.
The Role of Apple Intelligence and Market Competition
This year’s iPhones are marketed as AI-powered devices, but many of the AI features won’t be available at launch. This delay, paired with "intense competition in the Chinese market," has likely influenced sales. Kuo notes that while Apple managed to produce more Pro Max models this year, demand hasn’t followed suit.
“Apple might need to implement more aggressive iPhone product strategies in 2025 to stimulate market demand,” Kuo says. He also suggests that Apple could consider cutting prices, particularly in China, a strategy used last year for the iPhone 15 series.
Shorter Delivery Times and Lower Sales
Across the board, delivery times for the iPhone 16 models are shorter than expected, signaling both lower demand and higher supply. Analysts from J.P. Morgan and Jefferies noted that quicker delivery estimates for the Pro and Pro Max models suggest Apple may have overestimated demand for these higher-priced phones, especially in the U.S.
Jefferies analysts commented:
Even though Apple may have allocated more supply to the U.S., it still suggests they overestimated demand for the new AI features.
Looking Ahead
While the numbers are underwhelming compared to last year’s launch, there’s potential for a late surge once Apple Intelligence features roll out in the fall. Apple will also likely see a boost as the holiday season approaches, a period that traditionally drives iPhone sales.
Photo via Apple Inc. // You can preorder iPhone 16, 16 Plus, 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max now — but you'll have to wait until September 20 to buy the new iPhones in-store.
Still, for those who missed out on early preorders, there’s a silver lining: shorter shipping delays mean getting your hands on an iPhone 16 won’t be as hard as in previous years.
Apple’s ability to meet expectations with the iPhone 16 remains a question as analysts continue to keep a close eye on the numbers.
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